Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )
As the "first domestic memory stock," Changxin Technology finally landed on the STAR Market today, closing up 465.8% on the first day, with a full-day turnover exceeding 140 billion yuan and a total market value of 3.28 trillion yuan.
At the same time, it broke multiple records on its first day of listing, including "first tech stock with an opening market value exceeding 3 trillion yuan," "top market value on the STAR Market," "first stock with a single-day turnover exceeding 100 billion yuan," and "first new stock with a turnover of over 100 billion yuan and a turnover rate exceeding 50%," setting multiple A-share historical records.
With the market performance on the first day settled, the next question arises: Can Changxin Storage's stock price continue to rise? What is the target price? Currently, the market still has some divergence on this.
Debate on Changxin's Stock Price Outlook: Nomura Sees 116 Yuan, Northeast Securities Gives 10-15x PE
As the current "fourth globally, first in China" memory giant, Changxin Storage's market position is unquestionable.
According to data disclosed by Changxin in its listing press release, the company expects to achieve revenue of 110 billion to 120 billion yuan from January to June 2026, a year-on-year increase of 612.53% to 677.31%; it expects net profit attributable to parent company of 50 billion to 57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2244.03% to 2544.19%. In view of this, many institutions have given their own outlooks.
View 1: Nomura Gives Buy Rating, Bullish to 116 Yuan, Market Cap Over 7.7 Trillion RMB
This morning, international investment bank Nomura Securities (referred to as Nomura) released a report stating that it gives a "Buy" rating for Changxin (CXMT) with a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 20, implying an upside of 1239.5%. This valuation is twice that of US memory giant Micron (MU), meaning Changxin Technology's stock price is about 13.4 times the IPO price, corresponding to a market value of approximately 7.76 trillion RMB.
It is worth noting that in the report title, Nomura likened the industrial value of Changxin's DRAM chips to the "crown jewel of China." According to its model, Changxin's revenue will rapidly increase from 61.8 billion yuan in 2025 to 290.7 billion yuan in 2026, 560.8 billion yuan in 2027, and 773.3 billion yuan in 2028; Nomura also expects Changxin's net profit attributable to parent company to rise from less than 1.9 billion yuan to 130.3 billion yuan in 2026, 277.2 billion yuan in 2027, and 393.1 billion yuan in 2028. The compound annual growth rates for these two indicators are 63% for revenue and 74% for net profit.
It is worth noting that Nomura's judgment of nearly 2.4 times the current market value is not unfounded, but based on a comprehensive assessment of dimensions such as capacity expansion, technology upgrades, and price increases, and is also related to Changxin's current product structure, the memory super cycle, and the use of subsequent fundraising. For more judgment logic, it is recommended to read "Thirteen Times Bullish on Changxin Technology?"
According to Changxin Technology's prospectus, of the 57.9 billion yuan raised in this IPO, 7.5 billion yuan will be used for technology upgrades and renovations of memory wafer manufacturing mass production lines, 13 billion yuan for core process technology upgrades of DRAM memory, and 9 billion yuan for forward-looking technology research and development. The market generally believes that the last 9 billion yuan will be used for HBM direction R&D, which is currently the core business of memory giants such as SK Hynix and Micron—AI chip high-bandwidth memory.
In other words, Changxin is not satisfied with its current main DRAM business line and is also striving to expand into high-profit, high-demand sectors like HBM.
View 2: Northeast Securities Estimates Valuation Range Converges to 3.2-5.7 Trillion RMB
Compared to the extremely optimistic Nomura, Northeast Securities' bullish range is relatively conservative, but still has over 42% upside from the current market value.
To give a reasonable valuation for Changxin Technology, Northeast Securities provided market value references from the following three aspects:
- Market share relative valuation perspective, using US stocks as a valuation reference, by comparing and analyzing the market shares of Micron Technology, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, SanDisk, etc., in the DRAM and NAND markets, splitting their market values by different businesses, considering Changxin's long-term market share, target market value of 3.49 trillion yuan.
- Profitability split perspective, by breaking down Changxin Technology's historical revenue and cost structure, using price and capacity as core variables, forecasting profits for this year and next, with 2027 net profit attributable to parent company of 284.8 billion yuan, at 10-15x PE corresponding to a target market value of 2.85-4.27 trillion yuan.
- Unit capacity market value perspective, calculating the unit capacity market value of overseas memory listed companies in the DRAM business and based on this, calculating a target market value of 3.22-3.99 trillion yuan.
For detailed calculations and argumentation, it is recommended to read "A New 'Stock King' in A-Shares is Born, How to Reasonably Value Changxin?"
View 3: Multiple ETF Funds Warn That Changxin's First-Day ETF NAV May Deviate from IOPV
This morning, on the eve of Changxin Technology's listing, multiple ETF fund managers such as China Asset Management and Harvest Fund issued reminder announcements that some of their ETFs participated in the IPO of Changxin Technology and valued it at the issue price, while the ETF's indicative optimized portfolio value (IOPV) only includes Changxin's issue price, not its market price fluctuations. Therefore, on the first day of Changxin's listing, the ETF's IOPV may differ from the fund's net asset value. Investors are advised to pay attention to related investment risks.
In this regard, it was learned from an ETF fund manager that fund companies' ETF IPO subscriptions are generally done together with active equity funds. The ETF's IOPV is strictly calculated based on the PCF list, and new shares and other restricted non-constituent stocks are not included. Changxin Technology's surge on the first day will cause the actual fund NAV of ETFs participating in the IPO to be slightly higher than the IOPV, and there is indeed a deviation. In this case, possible arbitrage strategies include buying ETFs while hedging with derivatives, retaining only the excess exposure from the deviation.
In layman's terms, the IOPV (reference NAV) that investors see is calculated based on Changxin's issue price of 8.66 yuan, but the actual fund NAV is calculated based on the market price, so the IOPV will seriously "underestimate" the fund's true value, appearing as a discount. Essentially, because Changxin's opening price surged, but the investment system display interface has a delay, to prevent investors from buying ETF funds at high prices due to market fluctuations, thereby incurring investment losses.
View 4: Analyst Believes Changxin's Listing Surge Still Hard to Change Global DRAM Shortage
Today, Milk Road AI analyst Melvin published an article analyzing the surge in Changxin Technology's stock price.
He said that in the past less than a year, Changxin Storage's global DRAM market share has increased from less than 4% to about 7.7%-8%, and its first-quarter revenue this year increased by 719% year-on-year to 50.8 billion yuan. This growth is mainly due to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shifting more capacity to AI server memory (especially HBM), leading to a supply gap in the traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, and Changxin Storage took the opportunity to fill the demand for mid-to-low-end DRAM.
However, Changxin Storage's current capacity is far from sufficient to meet global demand. Its monthly wafer capacity is about 290,000-320,000 wafers, lower than Samsung's about 630,000 wafers and SK Hynix's about 500,000 wafers. In addition, US export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are also limiting Changxin Storage's further expansion speed.
He believes that Changxin Storage will still find it difficult to enter the HBM market in the short term, so it will not change the AI memory supply-demand pattern. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will still maintain advantages in high-profit products such as HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, and the global memory shortage cycle may continue.
In short, the analyst believes that Changxin's listing surge will not directly translate into a linear increase in market share or a surge in supply in the memory industry, and gives a relatively neutral expectation of market value and price performance from a rational perspective.
View 5: On-chain divergence between long and short, US and China addresses bullish, Korean addresses bearish
Apart from institutions and analysts, there is also a clear divergence between long and short positions on the chain for ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) before the market opens.
According to HyperInsight monitoring, on the eve of CXMT's listing, attributable CXMT wallets on Hyperliquid show: Wallets from the US, Hong Kong, and Mainland China are generally bullish, while Korean-labeled wallets are the main shorting force in this sample.
Among them, Korean wallets hold about $760,000 in short positions, with short positions approximately 38 times the long positions; Taiwan-labeled wallets are also bearish, with a net short of about $329,000.
On the long side:
- US-labeled wallets hold $1.6 million in long positions and $345,000 in short positions, with a net long of about $1.255 million;
- Hong Kong-labeled wallets hold $1.3 million in long positions and $431,000 in short positions, with a net long of about $869,000;
- Mainland China-labeled wallets hold only $83,000 in long positions and $16,000 in short positions, with a net long of about $67,000.
Assuming that the $760,000 short positions from Korean wallets were all opened before the market open at a uniform price of $6.48, with no subsequent adjustments, and all using 1x leverage, the theoretical floating loss on the short positions would be about $48,500, with a loss rate of approximately 6.4%. Combined with today's closing data, the bulls have returned fully loaded.
View 6: CXMT's upward expectation may last for several days, low circulation and high market cap will continue to trigger FOMO
Beyond the above information, the mainstream view within the crypto market still holds some confidence in the subsequent rise of CXMT.
The main points include:
First, the current circulating share of CXMT stock is only 6.63%, highly similar to the early performance of SpaceX (SPCX) when it was listed;
Second, the memory super cycle remains the main theme of the capital market, coupled with memory manufacturers such as SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron Technology continuing to expand production and advance chip cooperation and new factory construction, and analysts expect SK Hynix's Q2 earnings to far exceed market expectations, with industry positives directly driving bullish sentiment for CXMT;
Third, CXMT's unique position as the "leading domestic memory industry stock" has made it a highly watched speculative target in the A-share market and multiple capital markets. Combined with the previous "A-share premium effect," a P/E ratio of 15-20 times is not unrealistic;
Fourth, although there are "rumors" that brokerages have internally issued notices banning speculation on CXMT, market performance shows that institutions remain restrained but still highly attentive, indicating that subsequent institutional buying of CXMT still exists, thus reserving some momentum for further rises.
Finally, as a side note, according to Bloomberg Billionaires Index data, since CXMT's listing, the wealth of its founder Zhu Yiming's family has surged nearly 300% to $13.9 billion. Currently, he is preparing to distribute 40% of it as bonuses to employees. This move may emulate SK Hynix's distribution of 10% of its annual net profit to all employees, and may also slow down the pace of equity monetization to some extent.
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