This week, Bitcoin's daily-level a-wave rebound may have peaked on July 21, and the market has entered the b-wave adjustment phase; HYPE is at the critical resistance zone of $60-63.5, with the path still unclear. The following is a review of BTC and HYPE multi-cycle structures, trading strategies, and last week's short-term trading verification for reference.
Summary of Core Trading Views This Week:
• BTC multi-cycle trend structure analysis (detailed in Part 1)
• BTC this week's market forecast and medium/short-term trading strategies (detailed in Part 2)
• HYPE hourly-level trend structure analysis (detailed in Part 3)
• HYPE this week's market forecast and short-term trading strategies (detailed in Part 4)
Market Verification of Last Week's Trading Strategies and Core Views:
• BTC market trend forecast verification: In last week's article, we clearly stated that Bitcoin had a high probability of ending the current daily-level first segment (a-wave) rebound near $67,300. Our forecast was accurately verified by the market.
• BTC short-term trading results: Bitcoin completed one short-term short trade (1x leverage) last week, successfully achieving a profit of approximately 1.70%. (Detailed in Part 5)
• HYPE market trend forecast verification: In last week's article, we clearly stated that if the price rebounds early in the week, it can be seen as a retest confirmation after breaking below the key support zone ($62-63.5). So far, the market movement is highly consistent with our judgment.
I. Bitcoin Multi-Cycle Trend Structure Analysis
1. Bitcoin daily-level trend structure analysis: (Based on market analysis after May 6)
Figure 1 Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart
① As shown in (Figure 1): Since the adjustment started from the high of $82,850 on May 6, the daily chart has shown a four-segment adjustment structure: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).
② From the daily structure analysis: The first segment (a-wave) rebound starting from the low of $57,820 on July 1 may have ended on July 21, with the rebound height reaching $66,955.
③ If the a-wave rebound has ended, the market is currently running the b-wave adjustment phase. After the b-wave adjustment ends (provided that the adjustment low does not break below $57,820), there may be a potential c-wave rebound, which could challenge the resistance zone near $67,300 again.
2. Bitcoin hourly-level trend structure in-depth analysis: (Based on 4-hour analysis cycle)
Figure 2 Bitcoin 4-hour K-line Chart
① Under the 4-hour cycle framework, the rebound starting from the low on July 1 (endpoint 44, approximately $57,820) to July 21 (endpoint 51, approximately $66,955) is clearly divided into seven segments from (44-45) to (50-51). Among them, since the five segments (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), and (49-50) overlap, they form a "five-segment" central hub E.
② According to trend structure analysis: Comparing the entry segment (44-45) of central hub E with the exit segment (50-51), it is clear that the rebound momentum of the exit segment is significantly weaker than that of the entry segment, forming a momentum divergence between the two. Therefore, the rebound starting from "endpoint 44" may have ended at "endpoint 51", and the subsequent adjustment probability is significant.
③ The adjustment starting from "endpoint 51" has run two segments: (51-52) and (52-53). The current trend can be seen as a retest confirmation phase after the price broke below $65,700.
II. Bitcoin This Week's Market Forecast and Trading Strategies
1. BTC this week's market trend forecast:
Core views this week:
① Focus on the test result of the price retesting near $65,700.
② Focus on the support strength when the price dips to the $60,950-61,500 area.
2. Key resistance levels:
• First resistance zone: $65,700-67,300 area (previous key resistance zone)
• Second resistance zone: $69,500-71,000 area (previous key resistance zone)
3. Key support levels:
• First support level: near $63,700 (previous key support level)
• Second support level: $60,950-61,500 area (previous key support level)
• Third support level: near $57,820 (previous key support level)
4. This week's trading strategies (excluding sudden news impact)
① Medium-term strategy:
Figure 3 Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)
Position monitoring model: As shown in (Figure 3), the current price has effectively broken below the "long-short channel", confirming that the market structure has turned into a bearish dominant pattern.
According to the established trading plan: When the price rebounds to near $67,000 and shows signs of stagnation, and simultaneously our proprietary quantitative model emits a top signal, we have strictly executed the strategy and increased the medium-term short position to about 40%.
②, Short-term strategy: Use 30% position, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the operation cycle).
③, In short-term operations, to dynamically respond to complex market changes, we have prepared two specific operation plans A/B in advance.
Plan A: Tentative short selling in strong resistance zone.
• Open position: If the coin price rebounds to the 65,700～67,300 USD area and encounters resistance, combined with the top signal of the quantitative model, a short position of about 30% can be established.
• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss.
• Close position: When it adjusts to an important support level and combined with the quantitative model signal, gradually close the position to take profits.
Plan B: Light long position in strong support zone.
• Open position: If the coin price adjusts to above the previous low of 57,820 USD and shows a stabilization signal, combined with the bottom signal of the quantitative model, a long position of about 30% can be established.
• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss.
• Close position: When it rebounds to an important resistance level and combined with the model signal, gradually close the position to take profits.
III. HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure Analysis
Figure 4 HYPE_4 hour K-line chart
1, As shown in (Figure 4), since the high of 72.97 USD on July 7, HYPE has been adjusting to date (i.e., endpoint 61 to endpoint 71), which can be subdivided into a ten-segment adjustment structure on the 4-hour chart. Among them, five segments 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, and 66-67 overlap, forming a "five-segment" decline center.
2, The current market is running the (70-71) rebound segment. Subsequently, two possible trend scenarios may appear:
Path 1: 56.47 USD is both the end of the adjustment, starting a recovery market
The adjustment market that started on July 7 (72.97 USD) ended on July 24 (56.47 USD), and the current rebound is a technical repair phase targeting that round of decline.
Path 2: Build a "decline center" and then continue to bottom out
Currently, a new "decline center" is being built, after which the market will continue the original downtrend, breaking below the previous low of 56.47 USD and continuing to seek support downward.
3, In summary, in the short term, we need to closely monitor the test results of the price on the 60～63.5 USD resistance band and the defense strength of the support near 56.47 USD. The outcome of the battle at these two price levels will serve as the key basis for determining which path the market will take.
IV. HYPE This Week's Market Forecast and Short-term Operation Strategy
1, HYPE this week's market trend forecast:
①, Key resistance levels:
• First resistance level: 60～63.5 USD area
• Second resistance level: 68～69.5 USD area
• Third resistance level: near 72.97 USD
②, Key support levels:
• First support level: near 56.47 USD;
• Second support level: 52～55 USD area;
This week's core view: Closely monitor the test results of the price on the 60～63.5 USD resistance band and the support strength near 56.47 USD.
2, HYPE this week's short-term operation strategy:
This week's short-term operation: If the price rebounds to the 60～63.5 USD area and issues a clear adjustment signal, investors are advised to consider entering a light short position, strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline, and control the position within 20%.
V. Bitcoin Short-term Operation Profit Review
We strictly followed the operation plan and, based on the trading signals issued by our self-built "spread trading model" and "momentum quantitative model," completed a short-term (short) operation last week, with a total trading profit of about 1.70%.
1, Short-term trading record: (See Table 1)
Bitcoin short-term trading details summary:
Table 1
2, Short-term trading review: (See Figure 5)
• Opening strategy:
a, When the coin price rebounded to around 67,000 USD, a stagnation signal appeared, and the K-line formed a "top divergence" pattern;
b, The "spread trading model" triggered a strong top warning signal (white dot + green dot), and then the signal band (blue) in the chart broke below the skyline (green), issuing a decline signal; simultaneously, the "momentum quantitative model" adjustment signal resonated. Therefore, we established a 30% short position at 66,319 USD.
• Closing strategy:
a, When the coin price fell to around 64,500 USD, a stabilization signal appeared, and the K-line formed a "bottom divergence" pattern;
b, The "spread trading model" continuously triggered bottom warning signals (red dots), and then the signal band (orange-yellow) in the chart broke through the horizon (purple-red), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "momentum quantitative model"; therefore, we closed all positions at around 65,192 USD.
• Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of about 1.70%.
3. Short-term Trading Diagram
Figure 5 BTC_60 minute K-line chart: (Dynamic quantitative model + Spread trading model)
6. Special Notes:
- When opening a position: Set the initial stop loss immediately.
- When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop loss to the opening cost price (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.
- When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop loss to the position of 1% profit.
- Continuous tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit in the coin price, the stop loss moves synchronously by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.
The financial market changes rapidly; all market analysis and trading strategies need to be dynamically adjusted. All views, analysis models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and are solely for personal trading logs. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market carries risks; investment should be cautious. Do not make decisions based on this.
