The cryptocurrency market is showing the early signs of an altcoin rotation, but it is not yet a confirmed altcoin season.
Several altcoins have recently outperformed Bitcoin, with strong gains spreading across Layer 1 tokens, meme coins and selected infrastructure projects. However, Bitcoin still controls close to 59% of the total crypto market, while the Altcoin Season Index remains well below the level normally used to confirm broad altcoin leadership.
The most accurate description of the current market is therefore “early rotation,” not full altseason. Traders are becoming more willing to move beyond Bitcoin, but that capital has not yet spread evenly across the altcoin market.
Strong Altcoin Gains Are Creating the Altseason Narrative
Bitcoin’s rebound above $86,000 improved confidence across the entire crypto market. Once BTC stabilized after its initial breakout, traders began moving toward assets with greater price sensitivity.
The results are visible in recent performance. As of September 22, the Bitcoin price on MEXC was up approximately 10.9% over seven days. Ethereum gained around 10.3% during the same period, while the Solana price on MEXC rose approximately 15.8%.
Some smaller assets delivered much larger moves. SUI, for example, gained roughly 43.8% over seven days. Meme coins and other high-risk tokens also recorded sharp short-term rallies.
These gains explain why market discussion has shifted toward altcoin season. When Bitcoin stops rising vertically but remains stable, traders often become more comfortable moving into assets with smaller market capitalizations and greater upside volatility.
However, several successful altcoin trades do not automatically mean that the entire market has entered altseason.
The Altcoin Season Index Has Not Confirmed the Shift
The Altcoin Season Index stood at approximately 48 out of 100 on September 22.
Under the commonly used methodology, altcoin season is confirmed when at least 75% of the largest eligible cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day period. A reading of 48 means performance is still divided almost evenly between Bitcoin and altcoins.
This is an important distinction. The current market contains strong altcoin winners, but the outperformance is not yet broad enough or persistent enough to qualify as a full altcoin season.
The index has nevertheless improved from weaker readings earlier in September. That suggests momentum is moving in the right direction for altcoins, even though the confirmation threshold remains some distance away.
In practical terms, the market is transitioning out of clear Bitcoin leadership but has not completed the move into broad altcoin leadership.
Bitcoin Dominance Remains Too High for a Clear Altseason
Bitcoin dominance measures BTC’s share of the total cryptocurrency market value. It currently remains around 59%.
During a strong altcoin season, Bitcoin dominance usually declines as altcoin market capitalization grows faster than BTC. That process does not require Bitcoin to fall. Bitcoin can continue rising in dollar terms while losing market share to Ethereum and other assets.
So far, Bitcoin dominance remains elevated. BTC is still attracting substantial capital through institutional products, corporate treasury purchases and broader macro trading.
This means much of the current altcoin rally is being funded by new risk appetite across the whole market, rather than a clear migration of capital away from Bitcoin.
A genuine altseason would require this relationship to change. Bitcoin could remain stable or move gradually higher, but altcoins would need to outperform consistently enough to reduce BTC’s market share over several weeks.
Ethereum Has Improved, but It Is Not Yet Leading Decisively
Ethereum is usually the bridge between a Bitcoin rally and a wider altcoin season. When ETH begins outperforming BTC consistently, traders often become more confident about moving further along the risk curve.
The Ethereum price on MEXC was around $2,770 on September 22, while Bitcoin traded near $86,500. That placed the ETH/BTC ratio close to 0.032.
The ratio has improved over the past month, indicating that Ethereum has regained some strength relative to Bitcoin. Over the latest seven-day period, however, ETH and BTC produced similar gains, with Bitcoin slightly ahead based on MEXC price data.
That is constructive for the market but not decisive enough to confirm an Ethereum-led rotation.
For a stronger altcoin-season signal, ETH would need to outperform BTC across multiple timeframes while attracting sustained spot demand. Ideally, that strength would then spread from Ethereum into large-cap altcoins before reaching smaller and more speculative tokens.
The Rally Is Broadening, but Performance Is Still Uneven
Current market behavior shows a meaningful increase in risk appetite. Solana has outperformed Bitcoin over the past week, while SUI has produced a much larger gain. XRP, by comparison, rose approximately 7.6%, trailing Bitcoin’s weekly performance.
This unevenness matters.
During a confirmed altcoin season, outperformance is normally visible across a large share of the market rather than being concentrated in a few fashionable narratives. Layer 1 tokens, DeFi assets, meme coins, gaming projects and infrastructure tokens often rise together as capital moves rapidly between sectors.
The present rally is broader than a single-token move, but investors are still selecting particular narratives instead of buying altcoins indiscriminately.
That makes the market healthier than a pure meme-driven spike, but it also means traders cannot assume that every older altcoin will recover simply because selected tokens are rising.
MEXC View: This Is the Setup for Altseason, Not Altseason Itself
MEXC’s view is that the market has entered a pre-altseason rotation phase.
The improvement in market breadth, the recovery of ETH/BTC and the strong performance of assets such as SOL and SUI show that capital is beginning to move beyond Bitcoin. But two important confirmations remain absent: Bitcoin dominance is still high, and fewer than 75% of major altcoins have outperformed BTC over 90 days.
The key signal is not whether another small token rises 50% in one day. The stronger confirmation would be sustained large-cap leadership from Ethereum and Solana, accompanied by falling Bitcoin dominance and a continued increase in the Altcoin Season Index.
This distinction is useful for risk management. During the early rotation phase, performance is selective and reversals can be violent. In a confirmed altcoin season, participation usually becomes broader and capital rotates more consistently between sectors.
Calling the current market a full altseason too early could encourage traders to chase low-liquidity tokens that have already experienced their largest move.
What Would Confirm a Real Altcoin Season?
Several developments would strengthen the case:
- The Altcoin Season Index moves toward or above 75 and remains elevated.
- Bitcoin dominance begins a sustained decline rather than a brief one-day drop.
- ETH continues gaining against BTC instead of rising only in dollar terms.
- A majority of large-cap altcoins outperform Bitcoin across several weeks.
- Spot-market demand expands alongside derivatives activity.
- Gains spread across multiple sectors rather than remaining concentrated in meme coins and a few Layer 1 networks.
The opposite scenario would invalidate the early rotation. If Bitcoin dominance rises further, ETH/BTC weakens or altcoin gains disappear as soon as BTC pauses, the market would still be operating under Bitcoin leadership.
FAQ
Has altcoin season started?
Not according to the most widely followed indicators. Altcoins are gaining momentum, but the Altcoin Season Index remains around 48, below the 75 level normally associated with altseason.
Why are altcoins rising now?
Bitcoin’s recovery has improved market confidence, while traders are rotating toward assets with greater volatility. Some altcoins are also benefiting from project-specific catalysts and renewed speculative interest.
What is the most important altseason indicator?
No single indicator is sufficient. Traders commonly monitor the Altcoin Season Index, Bitcoin dominance, the ETH/BTC ratio and the number of altcoins outperforming Bitcoin.
Does Bitcoin need to fall for altseason to begin?
No. A common altseason environment involves Bitcoin remaining stable or rising gradually while altcoins rise faster, causing Bitcoin dominance to decline.
Which altcoins are currently outperforming Bitcoin?
Recent MEXC data showed SOL and SUI outperforming BTC over seven days, while ETH produced a similar return and XRP lagged. Performance can change rapidly and should not be treated as a prediction.
Is it too late to buy altcoins?
That depends on the individual asset. The broader rotation remains unconfirmed, while some tokens have already recorded substantial gains. Traders should evaluate liquidity, token supply, catalysts and downside risk rather than buying solely because the market is discussing altseason.
