The crypto market has faced the strongest pressure from macroeconomic factors since June, forcing market maker Wintermute to take a wait-and-see position. "We are not bearish, but we remain extremely cautious ahead of the Fed meeting," the OTC trading desk stated.
In the 43rd week of the year, Bitcoin recorded its third consecutive weekly decline (by 2.43%), losing the key support level of $82,500 and dropping to $80,500.
The main trigger for the fall was a sharp reversal in the U.S. spot ETF sector: on Thursday, net outflows from the funds amounted to $636 million, which happened in sync with the Nasdaq index falling by 2.6%.
Forget about AI. Investors are scared of oil again
The shift in market priorities determined the dynamics of assets. Investors' concerns about the financing of the artificial intelligence sector gave way to an energy crisis. Amid pressure on oil infrastructure, Brent crude rose by 5.66% to $116.72, becoming the main inflationary risk for Wall Street.
Wintermute emphasizes that the rigid tie of cryptocurrency to macroeconomics destroys the illusion of autonomy of BTC's four-year cycles. Since retail capital and institutional ETF flows now follow the dynamics of the Nasdaq, the crypto market has become vulnerable to deleveraging in the stock market, where margin debt has reached a record $1.5 trillion.
The results of the week recorded a large-scale rotation of capital into defensive and commodity instruments. Brent oil prices jumped by 5.7% to $116.72 amid pro-inflationary fears, while the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index gained 2.0%, indicating that the general appetite for risk persists.
At the same time, defensive U.S. Treasuries strengthened by 1.6%, fixing the 10-year bond yield at 4.99%. Meanwhile, Ethereum corrected by 3.4% to $2,330 following the U.S. tech sector, and gold fell by 4.0%, demonstrating a correction to the level of $4,008.
Where to look for the Bitcoin bottom if a storm begins
The outcome of the current week depends entirely on today's FOMC decision and Powell's rhetoric. With Brent prices above $100, inflationary pressure is growing. The desk's analysts call the $120 per barrel level critical — its breakout will make a December Fed rate hike the base-case scenario.
Amid this backdrop, Wintermute highlights two scenarios for Bitcoin:
- Bullish: A return to and consolidation in the $82,000 – $82,500 range. This is possible with neutral Fed rhetoric and no surprises in tomorrow's PCE index report.
- Bearish: A breakdown of the psychological mark of $80.0k will send the price to the base of the previous breakout at $76,000, with the risk of a move to the low $70,000 area.
Directional confidence among players is currently absent, Wintermute concludes. Until the key macroeconomic events have passed, opening large positions carries increased risks.
